A Political Analysis of the Future of the Ukraine War and the Positions of Russia and the United States.
By Haider Sohaili Esfahani – Writer and Political Analyst
Amid the complexities of the Ukraine war and the entanglement of global interests, the meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin in Alaska added a new scene to the evolving geopolitical theater. This article does not aim to exaggerate or oversimplify, but rather to offer a sober and objective reading of what lies beneath the surface of this encounter—far from official statements and superficial media coverage.
Any analysis or even speculation about Trump and his maneuvers must not overlook a fundamental truth: Donald Trump, at his core, is a showman.
This reality is equally evident in two other figures closely tied to the American Zionist lobby: Benjamin Netanyahu and Volodymyr Zelensky.
If one were to assess the Alaska summit between the Russian and American presidents in terms of political gains, the more ink spilled on the subject, the further we drift from the truth.
Many prefer to frame the meeting within the context of the Ukraine file, but those who believe it will produce a roadmap to end the war are, in my view, the furthest from reality.
The Alaska Meeting: Beyond the Ukraine File
Ukraine may appear to be the centerpiece of the summit, but it is merely the stage prop—not the substance of any potential agreements.
Why? Because the Russia-Ukraine exchange operates on a logic of “zero concessions.”
The Russians cannot relinquish what they’ve gained, and the Ukrainians cannot ignore what they’ve lost.
Ultimately, Russia annexed the Donbas republics and Crimea at the invitation of their residents.
These regions are predominantly Russian-speaking and amid civil strife with Kyiv, the Russian military intervened.
Crimea’s story, however, is far more intricate.
Crimea: Russia’s Sacred Ground
The Crimean War of 1853 was a deadlock of empires, one of history’s major conflicts—alongside the Battle of Carchemish in 605 BCE and the Thirty Years’ War in Westphalia (1618–1648).
That near-global war in Crimea claimed over 650,000 lives.
Crimea was part of Imperial Russia and later the Soviet Union, until Khrushchev transferred it to Ukraine in an administrative reshuffle—a move the Russian parliament condemned as treason in 1992.
Following ethnic cleansing in the late 18th century, Russian settlers repopulated the peninsula.
After the devastating Crimean War, the region became a symbolic “holy land” for Russians.
Reclaiming Crimea from Ukraine was seen as a restoration of Russian history, allowing Russian historians to breathe a collective sigh of relief.
Strategic location aside, Crimea cannot be part of any future peace deal—especially now that Kyiv is kneeling before NATO, hoping for formal membership.
Even if Russia were to receive enormous concessions that might temper its stance, the inclusion of Crimea in any negotiation remains highly doubtful.
Donbas Republics: “Return to the Motherland”
The Donetsk and Luhansk republics, which declared independence alongside Crimea’s annexation, are collectively known as Donbas.
They were part of Ukraine, but under Russia’s familiar strategy of establishing Russian enclaves in neighboring republics—creating a “thorn in the throat.”
Or more neutrally: a Russian minority that prevents the formation of a fully independent local identity—a semi-permanent garrison.
As Ukrainian nationalism surged in Kyiv, the pressure on Russian residents intensified, prompting their “return to the motherland.”
Of course, this black-and-white narrative is a simplification; the reality is far more complex, shaped by ethnic, linguistic, and Soviet-era policy entanglements.
In any case, the Donbas file is no longer in Putin’s hands to offer or revoke.
These republics have officially seceded and joined the Russian Federation, enjoying relative autonomy and operating beyond the Russian president’s direct authority.
Other regions, such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia—reportedly with Ukrainian majorities—are expanding under Russian control.
On September 29, 2022, Russia declared its independence and subsequently annexed it in two phases: first, separation, then integration.
Will Russia Withdraw from These Territories?
Practically speaking, no.
And it’s unlikely that Putin traveled to Alaska to resolve the Ukraine crisis.
Kyiv certainly cannot say:
“For peace, I’ll relinquish all these territories—just return the Ukrainian-majority areas, or let’s hold a referendum.”
The second option—a referendum—would mean losing Crimea and Donbas.
Even if Kherson and a few regions are recovered, Zelensky won’t be welcomed in Kyiv like a Roman hero.
Even European leaders, when discussing occupied territories, focus solely on Crimea.
The West, despite its professed concern for human rights and self-determination, tends to think only in terms of strategic equations.
The events in Gaza have proven that this is the same Europe that once posed triumphantly beside severed African heads during colonial times.
What Does Russia Want?
Russia’s view of the Alaska summit is not far from Trump’s—but with more audacity.
In a word, they see Trump’s initiative as a “grand wink,” meaning: “Forget about it.”
Put simply, they regard the entire meeting as a grand theatrical performance—where a symbolic bone is tossed to Ukraine, everyone celebrates the end of the war, and Trump walks away with a Nobel Peace Prize, rendering the award meaningless.
Next year’s prize might even go to Benjamin Netanyahu.
This “bone” could be Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and a few villages around Donbas—an implicit admission of total defeat.
The Alaska Show
Trump’s goal is not to end the Ukraine war, but to stage a “show” that removes Ukraine from the U.S. foreign policy agenda.
As he often says:
“I gave Zelensky a great deal, but he refused. Wasn’t it a great deal? Great. What can I do? Zelensky misbehaved. Right?”
The next day, the Ukraine war enters a “coma phase,” where dozens of statements are issued for every bullet fired.
Putin understands this well.
In response to Trump’s waltz, he performs his own Cossack dance—a skilled and layered choreography for a grand performance meant to rescue U.S.–Russia relations from this “nuisance” of a file.